TICS data for August

We've just had the monthly TICS data release for August.  You can view it here:
http://www.treasury.gov/ticdata/Publish/mfh.txt

The standout mover for the month was once again Belgium, whose holding reduced from $155.5bn to $110.7bn  (-$44,8bn).

There has been much speculation as to who stands behind the Belgium holdings, where Euroclear is based.  Some background here:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-18/revealing-identity-mystery-belgian-buyer-us-treasurys

The suggestion is that one or more of the Chinese institutions uses a Euroclear identity to hold Treasuries.  I have recreated one of their charts to see what the most recent data looks like.

Below is a chart of China Foreign Exchange Reserves (white line) vs. the aggregate of China and Belgium's Treasuries holdings (yellow line). Click to enlarge.

One should remember that Belgium will hold some US Treasuries in its own right for Reserves purposes.  Below is a long term chart of Belgium Treasury holdings.

This chart would suggest Belgium's "natural" holdings would be somewhere well south of $50bn.

One other observation. The amount of Treasuries sold by Belgium, year to date to the end of August was $243.9bn, or about $30.5bn a month, and the chart suggests this was executed in a fairly linear fashion.

AS